20180601前海期貨深度報(bào)告：油脂供需邊際趨緊
報(bào)告摘要
n??厄爾尼諾令植物油供給下降，全球庫(kù)存消費(fèi)比降至低位。中國(guó)植物油繼續(xù)處于去庫(kù)存進(jìn)程，庫(kù)存壓力不斷降低。
n??2018年豆油面臨大豆供給下滑沖擊，菜油在持續(xù)數(shù)年去庫(kù)存后，目前國(guó)儲(chǔ)菜油極為有限且?guī)齑娲蠼稻懦桑貦坝彤a(chǎn)量增速亦趨緩，還可能遭遇馬來(lái)西亞樹(shù)齡老化帶來(lái)單產(chǎn)持續(xù)下降的可能，總體上油脂供給將低于市場(chǎng)預(yù)期。
n??基于供給不及預(yù)期的展望，推薦逢低買(mǎi)入油脂，并可考慮做多油粕比及豆油基差。
???植物油供需格局偏緊
???豆油供給前景不樂(lè)觀
???菜油持續(xù)去庫(kù)存
???單產(chǎn)下滑或拖累棕櫚油供給
???策略推薦
Abstract
n??EI Nino climate reduced the output of vegetable oil and lowered the stocks-to-use ratio. Vegetable oil in China has been in the process of destocking, thus the inventory is declining.
n??Reduction of soybean supply may shrink the output of soybean oil in 2018. Official reserve of rapeseed oil has declined 90% after destocking in past years. The palm oil output also grew slower and per unit yield may decrease caused by Malaysian palm trees’ ageing. In sum, the supply of vegetable oil will be under expectation.
n??Since the supply is under expectation, buying on the dips is recommended. Meanwhile, longing soybean oil-to-meal ratio and soybean oil basis shall be considered.
???Demand-supply of vegetable oil becomes tight
???Unoptimistic prospect of soybean oil supply
???Continuous destocking of rapeseed oil
???Declined yield per acre may drag down the supply of palm oil
???Investment strategy recommendation
